SpaceX

The stock is on sale — and Wall Street just weighed in. SPCX has pulled back below its $135 IPO price to around $113, pressured by post-IPO share-unlock supply, a broad tech wobble, and a mid-July Starship launch abort that briefly wiped roughly $100 billion off the market value. Then, in early July, at least half a dozen major firms initiated coverage — all buy-equivalent: Morgan Stanley (base case $300), Bank of America ($235), Citi ($200, with a bull path north of $900), and Raymond James (Strong Buy, $800). The consensus target now sits near $244 — roughly double our July 24 price.

The squeeze nobody's talking about yet. SPCX has quietly become the most-shorted new stock on Wall Street — roughly a third of its tradable float (~196 million shares) is now sold short, up from ~40 million a month ago, and that is only what is disclosed. On a stock that floated barely 4% of itself, that is a coiled spring.

Musk does not suffer short sellers quietly — he waged open war on Tesla's bears for years, and he is already firing back at SPCX's. With Starship flying this week and first earnings on August 4, it would take only one upside surprise to send shorts scrambling to cover.

The bigger prize: one ticker for the whole Musk empire. On Tesla's Q2 earnings call this week, Musk reopened talk of a Tesla–SpaceX combination — "more and more overlap," handled through "an appropriate process" — and Deepwater's Gene Munster promptly raised his odds of a deal to 90% within a few years. SPCX already absorbed xAI; add Tesla and this becomes the single holding vehicle for the entire Musk empire — rockets, Starlink, AI, and cars — in one ticker. That is optionality you simply cannot buy anywhere else.

The moonshot inside the moonshot — data centers in space. In January 2026, SpaceX filed with the FCC to operate up to one million solar-powered satellite data centers in low-Earth orbit, and unveiled "AI1," an orbital compute craft wider than a Boeing 747. The logic is elegant: the three bottlenecks strangling AI on the ground — power, cooling, and land — largely disappear in orbit. It only pencils out if you own Starship and the world's largest satellite network. SpaceX owns both. This is years away and unproven, and we are not paying for it today — but it is exactly the kind of uniquely-SpaceX optionality not available in any other stock.

The IPO's 22 underwriters spent the weeks after the deal in their mandatory "quiet period," and the first independent initiation — KeyBanc, in late June — was a cautious Sector Weight with no target. That quiet period has now lifted, and the marquee coverage has arrived buy-heavy: a wave of early-July initiations, all buy-equivalent, pushing the consensus twelve-month target to roughly $244 — about double our July 24 price of ~$113. The bull cases run considerably higher.

SpaceX is, in our view, one of the genuinely irreplaceable companies of this era — a near-monopoly in launch, the runaway leader in satellite internet, and the owner of the single most important growth program in aerospace. But a great company and a great stock at any price are two different things, and SPCX arrives expensive, unprofitable on a combined basis, and saddled with a months-long parade of insider share unlocks.

One last note on why we lean toward backing this one despite the price: this is not our first Elon Musk call. In October 2013, with Tesla around $170, we told readers of this very letter that Tesla was "a $250 stock" — a target Wall Street had not yet put its name to. Tesla hit it the following year, and split-adjusted, that old call works out to a fraction of where Tesla trades today. We mention it to explain why we give a Musk-led, vision-first company the benefit of the doubt even when the multiple looks impossible.