NASDAQ: SPCX
Space Launch & Satellite Internet · The Largest IPO in History
The company that launches roughly 85% of everything the world puts into orbit and runs Starlink — the only profitable satellite-internet network on Earth — now public after the biggest IPO ever recorded: ~$75 billion raised at a ~$1.77 trillion valuation.
Our July Buy Alert
~$111
Jul 24, 2026 · below $135 IPO
IPO Price
$135.00
Jun 12, 2026
Oct 21 Close
$159.31
+43% from alert · Oct 6 high $176.42
Street-High Target
$500
JPMorgan, Oct 21 · 30 of 38 rate Buy
Latest Update · October 21, 2026
Where our call stands. We flagged SPCX at ~$155 in June and issued an urgent buy alert near $111 on July 24, below the IPO price. The stock bottomed at $108.27 on August 5, climbed through the Nasdaq-100 inclusion and Starship’s first orbital flight, ran to $176.42 on October 6 on word of AI-compute contracts with Google and Anthropic, pulled back into earnings, and closed at $159.31 on October 21, up 7.8% on the day — 43% above our alert, 59% at the high.
The first profitable quarter. Q3 revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161%, beat the $12.7 billion estimate; EPS of $0.35 beat $0.15; adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 billion beat $6.6 billion. Starlink did $5.2 billion (+69%) with 13.6 million subscribers across 174 markets and rising ARPU. The AI unit did roughly $7 billion and turned an operating profit. Capex came in below plan. Musk told analysts he sees annual recurring revenue of $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027.
Eight target hikes in a morning. JPMorgan $500 (from $240), Cantor $345, Barclays $300, Morgan Stanley $300 reiterated, Goldman $245, Citi $240, UBS $230, TD Cowen $224; Evercore ISI and Wells Fargo raised as well. Thirty of 38 covering analysts now rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Tesla. Musk confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX have each formed special committees of independent directors to evaluate a merger; he has recused himself, and a Tesla vote would need a majority of all outstanding shares. Ark Invest estimates a combined company could reach $3.8 trillion in sales by 2031. Six days earlier, Tesla unveiled its new Roadster at SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas test site — and flew it, on SpaceX-built cold-gas thrusters.
Is it just me, or is the SpaceX story only just now starting to get interesting?
Our view is unchanged: BUY / ACCUMULATE, hold for years. Keep buying in pieces. The lock-ups are nearly behind us (December 8 is the last big one), Starship Flight 15 will attempt to catch both the ship and the booster, and the Q3 profit starts the clock on S&P 500 eligibility. Read the full October 21 update →
Watch the calendar. Lock-up releases of ~329 million shares on October 24 and the final 857 million from the 180-day group after that; the standard 180-day expiration on December 8; Starship Flight 15, the first attempt to catch both stages; and S&P 500 eligibility once trailing-four-quarter GAAP profitability is met.
Why SPCX, Why Now
The durable case underneath the day-to-day price action — six pillars that, taken together, are why we put our name on this one.
Reason 01
The Connectivity segment did $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue (up ~50% year-over-year) at roughly 63% segment margins, and crossed 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries. SpaceX operates an estimated 75–85% of all active satellites in low-Earth orbit. There is no real #2. This single business funds everything else the company does.
Reason 02
SpaceX flew roughly 165–170 missions in 2025 — more than 80% of all mass humanity put into orbit that year — with a 99%+ success rate and reusable boosters, one of which has now flown 34 times. It carried 11 of 12 U.S. national-security launches and every U.S. crew and cargo mission to the Space Station.
Reason 03
The fully-reusable mega-rocket is progressing (a successful Indian Ocean splashdown in May 2026), with first commercial payloads aimed at the second half of 2026. If Starship works at scale, it unlocks next-gen Starlink, orbital compute, and lunar/Mars economics — though it is also the company's #1 stated risk.
Reason 04
SpaceX reported a backlog of about $28.4 billion, anchored by NASA (including ~$4 billion of Artemis lunar-lander contracts), the Space Force, and the National Reconnaissance Office. This is sticky, multi-year, taxpayer-funded revenue.
Reason 05
At a ~$2 trillion cap, SPCX is a near-certain addition to the major indexes within weeks of listing, which forces passive index funds to buy the stock regardless of price — a structural source of demand that did not exist before the IPO.
Reason 06
SpaceX is no longer just spending on AI — it is starting to sell it. The xAI merger handed it control of Colossus, one of the largest AI supercomputers in the world, and the company signed Reflection AI to lease Nvidia compute for up to $6.3 billion — about $150 million a month from July 2026 through 2029. High-margin, recurring revenue on top of a rocket company.
The moonshot inside the moonshot — data centers in space. In January 2026, SpaceX filed with the FCC to operate up to one million solar-powered satellite data centers in low-Earth orbit, and unveiled "AI1," an orbital compute craft wider than a Boeing 747. The logic is elegant: the three bottlenecks strangling AI on the ground — power, cooling, and land — largely disappear in orbit. It only pencils out if you own Starship and the world's largest satellite network. SpaceX owns both. This is years away and unproven, and we are not paying for it today — but it is exactly the kind of uniquely-SpaceX optionality not available in any other stock.
Straight From the Company
President & COO Gwynne Shotwell — the operator who has run SpaceX day-to-day for nearly two decades — set the frame for new investors in a CNBC interview from the Starbase factory floor on IPO day:
I do not want to focus on quarterly earnings. I'm not saying we're not going to do right by our investors, but what folks who invest in SpaceX need to know is that what we're doing is very futuristic.
That is the bull case and the warning label in a single sentence. You are not buying next quarter's numbers — you are buying a decade-long bet on space infrastructure, satellite internet, and now artificial intelligence.
The Street's View
The marquee coverage arrived buy-heavy in early July, with a consensus target near $244 — roughly double our July 24 alert price. After the Q3 report on October 20, eight firms raised their targets in a single morning. JPMorgan now carries the Street high at $500; the consensus sits near $238 even after the stock's run, and 30 of the 38 analysts covering SPCX rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
| Firm | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan | $500 | |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | $345 | |
| Barclays | $300 | |
| Morgan Stanley | $300 | |
| Goldman Sachs | $245 | |
| Citi | $240 | |
| UBS | $230 | |
| TD Cowen | $224 |
Street-High Target
$500
JPMorgan, Oct 21, 2026
Consensus Target
~$238
~50% above Oct 21 close
Ratings Skew
30 of 38 Buy
Post Q3 report
WSPS Verdict
SpaceX is, in our view, one of the genuinely irreplaceable companies of this era — a near-monopoly in launch, the runaway leader in satellite internet, and the owner of the single most important growth program in aerospace. But a great company and a great stock at any price are two different things, and SPCX arrives expensive, unprofitable on a combined basis, and saddled with a months-long parade of insider share unlocks.
One last note on why we lean toward backing this one despite the price: this is not our first Elon Musk call. In October 2013, with Tesla around $170, we told readers of this very letter that Tesla was "a $250 stock" — a target Wall Street had not yet put its name to. Tesla hit it the following year, and split-adjusted, that old call works out to a fraction of where Tesla trades today. We mention it to explain why we give a Musk-led, vision-first company the benefit of the doubt even when the multiple looks impossible.
BUY / ACCUMULATE — a long-term buy. Buy now, then scale up: start a position at current levels rather than wait, size it as a high-risk-tier holding, and treat the lock-up calendar (August through December) as a likely source of better add-on prices. This is a story for patient capital that believes in the franchise — not a trade.
The One Caveat You Cannot Ignore
Only about 4.2% of SpaceX's shares were floated in the IPO. The other ~96% is held by insiders and early investors and is locked up — for now. The gates open in stages this autumn, which is exactly why we say "accumulate on weakness" rather than "buy it all today."
Deep-Dive Materials & Track Record
WSPS Report · Our Original Call
Our original SpaceX write-up, issued June 2026 at ~$155–165. Note our guidance then: begin to accumulate and add on weakness — explicitly not a call for the bottom. The July pullback to ~$111 was that scale-in discipline working as intended, handing patient buyers the better entry we told them to wait for — and the run to $176 in October is the payoff. The full deep-dive — the six reasons, the Starlink engine, valuation, and the complete lock-up schedule — plus a plain-English glossary lives here.
Open the Full ReportOriginal-source materials so you can follow the launches and milestones as they happen.
Plain English
IPO, float, lock-up, greenshoe, index inclusion and more — the vocabulary behind this report, explained simply.
Open the GlossaryLive Market Data
Live price action. Click and drag to pan; use the timeframe controls to zoom from intraday to the full post-IPO history.
In the News
On the Calendar
Specific dates and events with the potential to move the stock — the upside catalysts and the lock-up supply, side by side.
Live Coverage — Check Back
Earnings, the lock-up calendar, Starship, the Tesla question — we track it here as it happens. Subscribe free to get our alerts the moment something moves.
Subscribe FreeThis featured-company portal is editorial research published by Wall Street Profit Search. It is not investment advice. Wall Street Profit Search is not a registered broker-dealer or investment adviser. SPCX is a newly public, thinly-floated, highly volatile stock carrying specific risks — a months-long insider lock-up supply schedule, valuation, key-man dependence on Elon Musk, and an unprofitable combined income statement. Size positions accordingly. See our full Important Disclosure for additional context.